Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are steady to 1 cent per bushel higher this morning, with July the firmest. The Wednesday session closed with nearby corn futures as much as 1 1/2 cents higher. EIA will release ethanol production and stocks data for the week ending May 22 later this morning, with larger production and lower stocks expected. The national average corn basis from cmdtyView was 26.47 cents under July. That was the strongest basis since late March. Brazil’s Agroconsult lowered their projection for second crop production from 74.7 MMT to 71.7. USDA was using 75 MMT in the May WASDE.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Trading in the front month soybean futures market has beans starting the Thursday session 2 to 3 cents lower than they were on Wednesday. Beans had a tight 8 cent range yesterday, and ultimately finished with 1/2 to 1 1/2 cent gains. Sept through Jan ’21 contracts closed with fractional gains. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView was 44.97 cents under July on May 27. Basis has remained between 40 and 48 cents under since March 9. Soybean meal futures closed $1.20 to $1.90/ton lower on Wednesday. Front month soy oil futures rallied 29 to 34 points. US soybean planting through May 24 was 65% complete. That was 10 ppts above the 5-year average. The inverted market for Dalian soybean futures has been unwinding. July was down 41 yuan to 5,005 while Sept traded 9 higher to 4,432 yuan on Tuesday. The dryness persists in Brazil, with the national Monitor de Secas reporting severe dry (S2) pockets in the states of Tocantins and Piaui.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Thursday trading in wheat begins with prices 1 to 3 cents higher. KC HRW is again the firmest. Kansas City HRW futures ended yesterday with gains of 3 1/2 to 4 3/4 cents. SRW and HRS wheat futures were lower at the closing bell. CBT wheat was down 1 3/4 to 2 1/2 cents and MGE wheat closed down by as much as 4 1/2 cents. Through May 24, 81% of 2020/21 spring wheat was planted, which was faster than trade estimates (~70%) but still behind the 5-year average. Spring wheat emergence was at 51%, compared to the 5-yr average of 65%. Also in the report, winter wheat was 68% headed, with ratings improving 2 points on the Brugler500 index wk/wk to 341. Winter wheat harvest in Texas was 27% completed as of Sunday, well ahead of the 12% 5-year average pace.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wednesday trading in the live cattle futures added $0.42 to $1.40 to the front months. Feeder cattle futures were 55 cents to $0.72 higher. The May 26 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was 33 cents lower to $126.11. The weekly FCE online cattle auction resulted in no sales. Packers passed on asks of mostly $120, and on $115 for a pen of TX heifers. Wednesday cash sales outside of the FCE were reported at $120 in the South, and $178 to $190 for Dressed. USDA mentioned the bulk of dressed sales moved from $180 last week to $190 for this week so far. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this afternoon widening the Choice/Select spread to $27.57. Choice boxes were $7.72 lower and Select boxes were down by $9.82. Cattle slaughter for the shortened week was at 220,000 head through Wednesday, which compares to 248,000 from the same last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



The lean hog futures market traded away some of the inversion on Wednesday. June and July are still a premium to the other months, but the premiums shrank by 70+ cents as June was down 32 and the deferreds closed higher. The CME Lean Hog index was another $1.15 lower on May 22, at $62.30. USDA National Average Base Hog price was $37.82 on Wednesday, down by $1.57. The IA/MN region base hog price was reported at $39.25, down by $1.33. The National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $88.82 on Wednesday, down by $8.62. The primals were mixed, but loins and ribs were down by $25.96 and $23.89 per hundred pounds respectively. USDA estimated WTD hog slaughter through Wednesday at 822,000 head. Last year’s harvest pace through the same day was 940,000 head. While slaughter runs typically slow from here into late summer, as many as two million hogs may be backed up somewhere in the pipeline due to the prior shutdowns.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are 10 to 29 points lower this morning. On Wednesday, cotton futures ended the session with 3 to 11 point gains in the active months. October was in the red by 11 points. Equity futures in the US are slightly higher, and the dollar was a little weaker overnight. The NASS weekly update to crop progress showed that 53% of the 2020/21 crop was planted as of May 24. That is up 9 percentage points on the week, matching both last year and the 5-yr average pace. Texas rated 67% of the crop in that state in Fair condition. The online cotton trading platform The Seam reported 1,003 bales sold at an average gross price of 50.21 cents/lb. Last week’s total sales were 4,250 bales. The Cotlook A index was down 50 points on May 26, at 65.65c/lb. The AWP is 48.01 cents/lb, and the LDP is 3.99 cents/lb. USDA will update those later today.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
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