AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn Closes Steady to Fractionally Higher

Corn futures were steady to fractionally higher by Tuesday’s close. The cmdtyView National Corn Price Index is at $3.69, up 43 3/4 cents from the same day last year. National basis was pegged at -19 cents, 25 1/4 cents stronger than the same harvest period in 2018. Dry weather over the next week in the bulk of the Corn Belt should allow for harvest progress to continue. Conditions on Monday saw ND lost another 6 points, with MI down 3. Ratings in IL were up 5, with IN jumping 4 points and NE 6 points higher. Ukraine’s ag ministry estimates the country’s 2019 corn crop will total 32.8 MMT, down 3 MMT from 2018.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.88, up 3/4 cent,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $4.00, up 1/2 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.06 3/4, unch,

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.13, unch

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Close Tuesday with Fractional Gains

Soybeans futures was up 3/4 to 1 1/2 cents in the front months at the close. The market was initially up a dime on rumors that China had issued tariff waivers for another 10 MMT of soybeans. This would allow private firms to buy US beans if the FOB prices are low enough in the US to be competitive with South America. Some were reported to be seeking offers on Tuesday. Soybean meal closed lower by 80 cents/ton, and soy oil finished 37 points higher. The National Soybean Price Index is at $8.67 1/2, a $1.07 3/4 jump over last year. Basis, according to cmdtyView was at -$0.67 1/2, 31 cents stronger than the same data in 2018. The USDA crop progress report showed soybean harvest progress at 46% after a week of better weather. The 5 year average pace is 64% done by now. The Dakotas are notably behind schedule. The last soybean crop condition ratings of the season were 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 345, both unch from last week. ND most notably deteriorated another 12 points. Egypt is tendering for 30,000 MT of soy oil, tender closes 10/23 per Reuters.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.34, up 3/4 cent,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.48 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.59 3/4, up 3/4 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.68 1/2, up 1 cent,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $306.90, down $0.80,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.85, up $0.37

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mixed at end of Tuesday’s Session

Winter wheat futures gave back overnight gains, with Chicago Dec finishing down by 5 1/2 and Kansas City Dec 4 1/4 cents lower. Spring wheat futures were higher, with MPLS Dec up by 1 1/4 cents on Turnaround Tuesday. NASS reported on Monday afternoon that winter wheat was 77% planted, and 53% emerged for the 18 states USDA tracks. Winter wheat conditions will be released next week, though there is very little correlation with output this early. Spring Wheat harvest was pegged at 96% complete, with ND @ 95% and MT 92% harvested. Ukraine’s wheat harvest is expected to total 28.1 MMT for 2019, according to the country’s ag ministry, a 3.5 MMT increase over last year. The deadline for an Ethiopian tender of 400,000 MT of wheat was pushed back from Wednesday to Nov 5.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18, down 5 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.21 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.39, up 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Contracts Mixed at Tuesday’s Close

Live cattle futures closed mostly lower on Tuesday, while feeder cattle futures made 27 to 70 cent gains in the front months, reversing Monday’s losses. USDA released the Cold Storage report, with September 30 stocks at 464.186 million lbs. That is down 8.47% from last year and reverses the upward trend with the mo/mo down by 1.22% Analysts on average expect the USDA’s Cattle on Feed report (Friday) to show that 2.082 million head were placed on feedlots for September. If realized, that would be 1.5% more than Sept. 2018. Expectations for September marketings are centered around 1.738 million head, which would be a 1.1% increase yr/yr. The 10/18 CME Feeder Cattle index dropped $1.03 to $144.93. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher Tuesday, but the ch/s spread had narrowed by $2.84 to a $22.85 choice premium. Choice boxes closed $0.80 higher to $220.93, while Select boxes are up $3.64 to $198.08. The USDA weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter was 237,000 head through Tuesday. That is up 2,000 head from last week but 1,000 fewer than last year. Asks are $110 in the South so far this week, with no bids to report. This week’s FCE online auction has a total of just 231 head listed for Wednesday’s auction.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $109.875, down $1.075,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.700, down $0.175,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $119.100, down $0.125,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.700, up $0.275

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.500, up $0.650

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.800, up $0.700

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Finish Lower on Tuesday

Hog futures were lower by as much as $2.32 in the nearby contracts. USDA’s Cold Storage reports showed 598.894 M lbs of frozen pork stocks for September, which is 1.6% above last year, but lower than August by 1.3%. Frozen belly stocks for September were the highest they’ve been for the month since September 1989. The CME Lean Hog Index was 9 cents lower on Oct 18 to $65.53. Tuesday’s pork carcass cutout value from USDA was down by $2.43 to $76.10 at close. Primal cuts are mixed with the biggest change coming from the belly, which closed $7.92 lower. The national average base hog for 10/22, was down by $0.85 to $56.26. USDA estimated hog slaughter for the week is 980,000 head as of Tuesday, which is 31,000 head more than the same Tuesday last year.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $65.500, down $2.325,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $76.275, down $1.900

APR 20 Hogs closed at $83.125, down $1.275

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Futures Noticing Higher Tuesday

Cotton futures peaked around midday, but still finished higher by Tuesday’s close. Cotton harvest was up 8% over last week to 40% complete per the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. That is 5% above average, with Texas 3 percentage points ahead of their average pace. Conditions in the report were 41% good/ex, up 3%, with the Brugler500 unch at 321. KS lost 25 points on the week, which was likely due to freeze damage that appeared late in the week prior. The Cotlook A Index was 25 points higher on Oct 21, to 75.70 cents/lb. The AWP is 55.26, effective through Thursday.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.67, up 11 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.42, up 8 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.1, up 8 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.61, up 9 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353